This Week's Predictions

Predicted spread and total for every scheduled, not-yet-played game we have data for. Purely predictive — unlike VRS above, this model isn't trying to resist blowouts, since real scoring behavior is exactly what a predictor needs to learn from.

Model accuracy, 2025 season (the most recently completed full season): predicted spread within 11.72 points on average, predicted total within 13.59 points on average, measured against 468 real games the model hadn't seen yet when it made that prediction.

No home-field adjustment is applied — our data source doesn't tell us which team is home or away, so every prediction treats the matchup as if it were on a neutral field. This is a data limitation, not a design choice.

Thursday, September 3

FavoredPredicted scoreUnderdogMarginTotal
Barnegat 20–-0 Lakewood 20.5 20.3
Becton 30–19 Waldwick 11.1 49.8
Camden Catholic 26–20 Riverside 6.0 46.2
Cinnaminson 22–14 Moorestown 7.7 36.1
Delran 21–19 Paul VI 1.3 39.9
Dickinson 26–13 Bergen Tech 12.7 38.9
Hasbrouck Heights 31–18 Hawthorne 13.5 48.6
Neptune 29–16 Asbury Park 12.7 45.4
Ridgefield Park 32–13 Cliffside Park 18.8 45.1

Friday, September 4

FavoredPredicted scoreUnderdogMarginTotal
Central Regional 18–17 Howell 0.9 34.3
Deptford 42–-13 Mastery 55.0 28.8
Dover 26–22 Kearny 4.5 48.6
Ewing 27–18 Hightstown 8.8 45.5
Hammonton 18–11 Atlantic County Institute of Tech 7.2 29.4
Holmdel 48–7 Red Bank Regional 41.0 55.2
Lawrence 32–9 Hamilton West 22.3 40.8
Metuchen 26–11 New Brunswick 15.0 37.0
Middle Township 41–0 Gloucester Catholic 41.0 41.2
Oakcrest 40–20 Absegami 20.0 60.2
Pascack Valley 28–10 Montville 18.8 38.2
Pope John XXIII 21–15 Cardinal Hayes 6.0 36.2
Somerville 22–21 Piscataway 1.2 42.4
Southern Regional 30–-4 Belmont Charter 33.8 26.0
St. Joseph 18–-4 Highland Regional 22.4 14.6

Saturday, September 5

FavoredPredicted scoreUnderdogMarginTotal
Hillside 47–15 Roselle 31.3 61.9
Long Branch 35–22 Keansburg 12.2 57.1
Monmouth Regional 28–17 Keyport 11.5 44.9

Thursday, September 10

FavoredPredicted scoreUnderdogMarginTotal
Bernards 24–3 Governor Livingston 21.4 26.8
Bloomfield 15–11 Montclair 4.4 25.8
Caldwell 45–3 Pequannock 42.7 48.2
Cedar Grove 28–23 Glen Ridge 5.4 50.8
Chatham 11–-3 Morristown 13.6 8.2
Clearview 58–33 Egg Harbor Township 25.4 90.8
Colts Neck 24–16 Long Branch 8.8 40.1
Columbia 0–0 Livingston 0.0 0.2
Cranford 31–6 Scotch Plains-Fanwood 25.0 37.2
Delran 24–10 Cinnaminson 13.0 34.0
Demarest 22–14 Fort Lee 8.0 36.2
East Brunswick 38–29 Piscataway 8.8 66.8
Eastern 27–20 Atlantic City 7.0 47.2
Eastside 26–21 Clifton 5.0 47.2
Fair Lawn 26–-2 Paramus 27.6 24.2
Ferris 37–1 North Bergen 35.6 37.8
Freehold Township 41–13 Middletown South 28.0 54.2
Gateway Regional 38–30 Woodbury 8.5 67.7
Glen Rock 39–23 Waldwick 16.1 62.8
Glen Rock 33–24 Waldwick/Midland Park 9.0 57.2
Haddon Township 20–14 Clayton 5.4 33.6
Highland Park 27–12 J.P. Stevens 15.0 39.2
Hightstown 23–22 Moorestown 1.0 45.0
Hillsborough 41–36 Bridgewater-Raritan 5.0 77.2
Holmdel 48–32 Rumson-Fair Haven 16.0 80.2
Hopewell Valley Central 3–-14 Burlington City 17.6 -10.8
Howell 21–6 Raritan 14.7 26.9
Indian Hills 37–4 Kinnelon 33.0 41.8
Johnson 52–33 New Providence 19.0 84.4
Keansburg 26–22 Freehold Boro 4.2 48.8
Kennedy 44–-25 Bergen Tech 69.0 19.7
Lakeland Regional 25–12 Jefferson Township 13.0 37.2
Lenape 0–0 Cherokee 0.0 0.2
Lenape Valley 45–20 Mountain Lakes 24.7 65.2
Madison 14–7 Sparta 7.0 21.2
Mahwah 28–22 Dumont 6.0 50.2
Mainland Regional 6–0 Seneca 6.0 6.2
Millburn 19–18 Dover 0.9 37.5
Montville 53–12 Passaic Valley 40.3 65.3
Morris Knolls 32–30 Warren Hills Regional 2.1 62.3
Morristown-Beard 49–34 West Side 14.6 82.8
Mount Olive 51–17 West Morris Mendham 33.6 68.2
Neptune 25–-3 Marlboro 28.6 22.0
North Plainfield 9–2 Voorhees 6.4 11.2
Northern Burlington 30–22 Trenton Central 8.6 52.0
Northern Highlands 9–-8 Hackensack 16.1 1.1
Nutley 45–8 Weequahic 36.7 52.9
Ocean Township 36–7 Red Bank Regional 29.0 43.2
Old Tappan 27–14 Wayne Valley 13.4 40.8
Parsippany 14–5 Parsippany Hills 8.3 19.2
Pascack Hills 48–21 Tenafly 27.0 69.2
Pascack Valley 37–-2 River Dell 39.4 34.7
Passaic 17–15 Teaneck 1.6 32.2
Pennsauken 36–26 Vineland 10.0 62.2
Princeton 19–4 Robbinsville 15.3 23.5
Ramsey 34–27 Westwood 7.4 60.8
Ridge 21–3 Hunterdon Central 18.0 24.8
Ridgewood 39–22 Ramapo 16.7 61.5
Roxbury 16–16 Morris Hills 0.2 32.0
Rutherford 28–7 Cresskill 21.0 35.2
Shawnee 32–7 Cherry Hill East 24.4 39.0
Shore Regional 22–18 Middletown North 3.8 39.4
Somerville 20–11 North Hunterdon 9.3 30.7
Southern Regional 0–-9 Liberty 9.8 -8.8
Spotswood 53–34 Metuchen 19.7 86.7
Wall Township 42–36 Manalapan 6.0 78.2
Watchung Hills Regional 22–1 Montgomery 20.9 22.3
Wayne Hills 32–15 West Milford 17.7 46.9
Weehawken 18–13 Park Ridge 5.0 31.2
West Morris Central 45–3 Randolph 42.4 48.2
West Orange 48–27 Irvington 21.0 75.2
Williamstown 13–12 Washington Township 0.6 25.6

Friday, September 11

FavoredPredicted scoreUnderdogMarginTotal
Allentown 22–9 Collingswood 13.2 31.8
Barnegat 12–4 Asbury Park 8.6 16.2
Barringer 9–7 Orange 1.9 16.7
Bayonne 41–14 Passaic County Tech 27.0 55.2
Becton 24–8 Manchester Regional 16.0 32.2
Bergenfield 6–6 Belleville 0.0 12.2
Bishop Ahr 24–14 Franklin 10.0 38.2
Bishop Eustace Prep 56–12 Camden Catholic 43.4 67.6
Bogota 29–19 Wallington 10.0 48.2
Boonton 30–0 Whippany Park 30.0 30.2
Brearley 34–10 Dayton 24.3 44.2
Bridgeton 33–25 Hammonton 8.6 58.2
Buena 33–17 Mastery 16.1 50.3
Burlington Township 9–7 Willingboro 2.0 16.8
Butler 42–33 New Milford 9.0 75.2
Central 16–-1 Snyder 17.0 15.8
Cherry Hill West 17–17 Lawrence 0.2 34.3
Colonia 21–19 Plainfield 2.0 40.8
Deptford 34–-1 Oakcrest 34.9 33.3
Dickinson 26–12 Cliffside Park 13.6 37.5
Donovan Catholic 45–27 Brick Memorial 18.0 72.2
Dunellen 16–15 Belvidere 1.4 30.8
East Orange Campus 36–12 Union City 24.0 48.2
Elizabeth 36–25 Union 11.7 61.2
Haddon Heights 28–-8 Maple Shade 36.0 20.4
Haddonfield 50–14 Delsea 36.4 63.8
Hanover Park 29–27 West Essex 2.0 55.5
High Point 31–25 Morris Catholic 6.3 56.2
Hoboken 36–3 Verona 33.3 39.5
Holy Cross 14–2 Riverside 12.4 15.7
Immaculata 43–22 Archbishop Stepinac 21.2 65.6
Kittatinny Regional 21–18 Hackettstown 3.3 39.5
Lacey Township 20–1 Toms River East 19.2 20.4
Linden 44–9 New Brunswick 35.2 53.8
Lodi 48–7 Lyndhurst 41.0 55.2
Lower Cape May 13–2 Cumberland 10.7 15.5
Manchester Township 8–4 Monmouth Regional 4.1 11.6
Manville 51–-1 Bound Brook 52.3 50.2
Memorial 46–12 Kearny 34.0 57.2
Middle Township 39–17 Atlantic County Institute of Tech 21.4 56.0
Monroe Township 46–23 North Brunswick 23.4 68.8
Newton 48–17 Vernon 30.6 64.8
Notre Dame 28–22 Ewing 5.7 49.5
Ocean City 24–16 Absegami 7.4 39.6
Old Bridge 42–20 South Brunswick 21.0 62.0
Overbrook 19–-5 Highland Regional 24.2 13.8
Palmyra 8–6 Florence Township Memorial 2.0 14.2
Paul VI 27–16 St. Joseph 11.1 42.1
Pennsville Memorial 47–8 Pitman 38.6 55.4
Perth Amboy 34–15 Roselle 19.0 49.6
Phillipsburg 26–22 Freedom 4.2 47.6
Pinelands Regional 34–11 Brick Township 22.8 44.6
Pleasantville 20–-2 Cedar Creek 21.4 18.4
Point Pleasant Beach 31–16 New Egypt 15.1 46.9
Point Pleasant Boro 23–19 Toms River North 3.6 41.6
Rahway 21–14 Woodbridge 7.0 35.2
Rancocas Valley 31–-14 Kingsway 44.7 17.5
Red Bank Catholic 62–13 St. John-Vianney 49.0 75.2
Ridgefield Park 36–5 Dwight Morrow 31.2 41.3
Saddle Brook 22–19 Hasbrouck Heights 3.3 41.3
Sayreville 18–8 Edison 10.0 25.5
Schalick 43–13 Woodstown 29.3 55.9
South Hunterdon 22–1 Middlesex 21.7 22.9
South Plainfield 20–2 Kennedy Memorial 17.4 22.0
St. Anthony's 41–24 St. Peter's Prep 17.5 64.7
St. Augustine Prep 32–15 Holy Spirit 17.7 47.2
St. Joseph 23–20 Westfield 3.0 43.2
Sterling 30–5 Gloucester City 25.7 35.2
Timber Creek Regional 37–22 Triton 14.6 58.7
Toms River South 36–28 Central Regional 7.2 64.0
West Deptford 36–28 Paulsboro 8.1 64.3
Winslow Township 38–38 Glassboro 0.0 76.2

Saturday, September 12

FavoredPredicted scoreUnderdogMarginTotal
Bergen Catholic 34–22 St. Joseph's Prep 12.7 56.1
Bordentown 36–32 Steinert 4.4 67.8
Carteret 26–1 Summit 24.7 27.5
Chaminade 31–12 Seton Hall Prep 19.0 42.5
DePaul Catholic 27–21 Monsignor Farrell 6.7 48.2
Don Bosco Prep 38–21 Pope John XXIII 17.0 59.2
Eastside 47–2 Hamilton West 44.8 49.7
Elmwood Park 17–13 Pompton Lakes 4.0 30.2
Hillside 27–22 Delaware Valley 4.6 49.6
Hopatcong 34–15 Sussex County Tech 19.0 49.2
Hudson Catholic 28–22 St. Peter's 6.2 49.6
Iona Prep 50–34 Paramus Catholic 15.5 84.5
Lakewood 27–27 Keyport 0.0 53.9
Manasquan 15–15 Matawan Regional 0.3 30.5
Mount St. Joseph 30–19 Lawrence 11.2 49.3
North Warren Regional 18–14 Wallkill Valley 3.7 32.2
Pemberton 45–2 Nottingham 43.0 47.2
Penns Grove 41–13 Lindenwold 28.7 54.2
Roselle Park 31–21 South River 9.9 51.7
Salem 10–-0 Audubon 9.9 9.3
Secaucus 0–0 North Arlington 0.0 0.2
St. Joseph Regional 28–24 Delbarton 4.0 52.2
Wildwood 21–18 KIPP Cooper Norcross Academy 3.1 38.3
Wood-Ridge 30–2 St. Mary 28.0 32.2

What this is

An independent, purely predictive model — fit from actual points scored and allowed, decomposed into an offense and defense number per team. It shares only its raw game data with the UPR and VRS pages above; none of its internal numbers come from either of them.